Poland’s grey zone in online betting: 22% in 2025, 6.4 points below the EU average

According to a Ministry of Finance estimate, the grey zone in Poland’s online sports betting market accounted for 22.0% of the market measured by GGR in 2025. In 2018 the figure was 34.0%, and the European Union average in 2025 was 28.4%, which is 6.4 percentage points higher than in Poland.

The ministry published the analysis on 12 June 2026, and the trade outlet Gaming and Media reported on it on 29 October 2026. The estimate covers 2025, so it does not include the BLIK payment block that started on 1 September 2026.

How the ministry measures the grey zone

The ministry bases the analysis entirely on data from the independent company H2 Gambling Capital. The grey zone is a share of GGR, the difference between the stakes paid in and the winnings paid out, and not a share of stakes. The EU average is an average of national averages, excluding Luxembourg and Malta, and the ministry’s table reflects the position as of 4 June 2026.

The last column is our own calculation from the ministry’s data.

Poland has had a smaller grey zone in online betting than the EU average since the start of the series, and the gap is widening: from 3.5 percentage points in 2018 to 6.4 percentage points in 2025. Since 2021 the EU average has moved between 28.0% and 29.2%, while the Polish share fell from 25.0% to 22.0%.

The decline has slowed

Most of the fall came at the start of the period: from 34.0% in 2018 to 25.0% in 2021, a drop of 9.0 percentage points in three years. Since 2022 the annual change has not exceeded 1.0 percentage point. The fall was 0.7 points in 2023, 0.6 points in 2024 and again 0.7 points in 2025.

Gaming and Media cautions that the data do not allow the decline to be attributed to regulation alone. The figure is an indicator of progress, not proof of cause.

Betting, casino and the whole online market

The grey zone is larger in online casino games than in betting. In Poland that segment is covered by a state monopoly: according to the ministry, only a state-owned company, Totalizator Sportowy, may operate it legally.

The fall column is our own calculation from the ministry’s data.

Across the whole online market the grey zone fell from 51.7% to 27.5% and is 5.3 percentage points below the EU average (32.8%). The biggest fall is in casino games: in 2018 Poland stood at 99.3% against an EU average of 62.5%, and in 2025 at 37.6% against 46.7%, already below the EU level.

The same ministry page gives revenue by sector. In sports betting it rose from PLN 16.42 billion in 2024 to PLN 18.75 billion in 2025 (+PLN 2.33 billion, +14.17%). The whole gambling industry grew from PLN 94.14 billion to PLN 117.35 billion (+24.65%), and online casino grew fastest: by 34.45%, to PLN 68.02 billion. Betting therefore makes up 16.0% of all industry revenue. The ministry calls these amounts revenue, but according to Gaming and Media they are turnover, not GGR. The ministry also cautions that the 2025 figures (database state of 9 June 2026) are undergoing final verification and may change slightly. We explain the difference in our overview Poland’s betting market in numbers.

The domain register and the BLIK block

The state’s main tool is the register of domains used to offer gambling services in breach of the law. The Minister of Finance maintains it, and an entry means access to the website from Polish territory is blocked. Information about entries goes automatically to telecoms operators and payment service providers. According to the ministry the register also serves an informational purpose, because it raises players’ awareness of whether they are using a licensed operator.

In a reply to a parliamentary question dated 29 December 2025, the ministry said that nearly 52 thousand domain names had been entered in the register since it started. In the same letter the ministry concedes that rapid digital development limits the register’s effectiveness, which is why it is strengthening cooperation with financial institutions and payment operators.

The second tool is the BLIK block. From 1 September 2026 Polski Standard Płatności has automatically rejected payments linked to domains on the register, after the President of the National Bank of Poland gave consent. The system checks the domain of a transaction, and a payment to a domain on the register never reaches authorisation. The mechanism also covers transactions handled by foreign settlement agents. Shop payments, cash withdrawals and subscriptions work as before, and licensed operators continue to accept deposits. According to the newspaper Gazeta Prawna, 21.6 million people actively used BLIK at the end of June 2026.

Data for 2025 cannot show the effect of this mechanism.

Our assessment: a clear trend, but a slowing pace

More than one fifth of the GGR of Poland’s online betting market is still estimated to sit outside the licensing system. The fall of 12.0 percentage points since 2018 is large, but the last three years brought only 0.6 to 0.7 points a year, and the ministry itself concedes that digital development limits the effectiveness of the domain register.

For the player the conclusion is practical. According to the ministry’s register (the page version of 19 October 2026), the table of betting operators lists 17 entities. Before opening an account, check the company name and domain in the register; our page legal vs illegal bookmakers explains how, step by step. We list the licensed operators on the page licensed bookmakers in Poland.

Sports betting is entertainment in which you can lose money, including with a licensed operator. The rules for safer play are on the responsible gambling page. Whether the BLIK block changes this trend will only be visible in the data for 2026.